The first test flight of part of the Ares launcher that is being developed to power astronauts back to the Moon is set for early August. The various parts of the rocket are already arriving at Cape Kennedy, and assembly will begin shortly. It's unclear, however, whether that two minute flight will be the first step in the Constellation program, or another dead end.
The Obama administration has yet to name a NASA administrator, which leaves the future of the manned space program in flux. Mr. Obama could decide to proceed with Constellation, or he could decide to review and revamp it, or delay it, or cancel it. There's probably no good reason to think the President will simply cancel the program, or even significantly delay it, but he could well want to leave his mark on it. That could mean a launcher other than Ares.
While Constellation seeks to return astronauts to the Moon by 2020, Interorbital Systems plans to begin building a lunar base in the 2014-2015 period. That seems awfully soon, but other NewSpace companies have similar time frames for private, Earth orbital space stations. If IOS can secure funding for its plan fairly soon, it could force a fundamental rethinking of Constellation.